Charlie Manuel: Damn
RA: What do you mean? This team has talent. I have confidence in your ability as a manager.
CM: So I won't be back next year?
RA: No, no you won't.
CM: Why don't we go ahead and schedule a press conference?
Probably not exactly how the conversation went, but it may have been something along those lines. It was interesting to see Amaro close to tears and Manuel act like it was another day. Manuel did add that he didn't quit/resign, but he wasn't fired either. That's not the reason this post exists though. The reasons behind the "firing" don't matter. Its the why Manuel is gone that matters.
For the most part, Manuel is a decent manager. He's not the worst, but he's not at the top of the pile either. Don't get me wrong, he's a hell of a lot better than you or I would be, but we're not comparing him to Joe Schmo either. Still, he managed to rack up 1,000 career victories as a manager. Exactly 1,000. The Phillies lost the next three games and Friday, Manuel was gone.
The general manager, Ruben Amaro Jr., has said all along that this team has talent. He expected the Phillies to compete with the roster they had and if they didn't, the manager was to blame for mishandling the players he was given. Sure, Manuel didn't sign Jonathan Papelbon to a ludicrous contract for a closer. Nor did he trade for Michael Young. He didn't sign Delmon Young or Ryan Howard. He didn't stand pat at the trade deadline when the team needed help. Still, its Charlie Manuel's fault the team didn't succeed.
Yes, the Phillies have talent, and they may have been able to put something together if these were the same players from 5 or 10 years ago. Michael Young is not the hitter he once was and that was apparent in 2012 even before the Phillies traded for him. His defense at third base is just shy of Chernobyl and his 36 year old legs aren't going to steal him any bases. Trading for an aging veteran on the downside of his career may have looked good in the reality that exists in Amaro's head, but it wasn't the smartest move when it happened, let alone in hindsight.
Chase Utley is not the player he once was. His health issues will keep him off the field for a quarter of the games the Phillies play. He's productive when he does play, but even if he's relatively healthy throughout the season, his underlying knee problems won't keep him on the field. He was signed to a 2 year contract extension, but Amaro is going to have to find a bench player that can play 2-3 games every week and do something productive with the bat.
Then we have the other side of the middle infield, Jimmy Rollins. He's no longer the lead off hitter he used to be and its only going to get worse. His OBP is .306 and he's stolen 15 bases. 15 steals is nothing to sneeze at, but Rollins is not a cornerstone player any more. He can hold down the fort at shortstop, but like Michael Young, he's only just a placeholder and not an impact player on a playoff team. Not to mention the fact that, on the depth chart, the guy behind him is 4 years OLDER than Rollins. John McDonald as a backup to Jimmy Rollins is a little tough to swallow.
The outfield is the only decent thing about the team, with the exception being Cole Hamels. Recently acquired Casper Wells, John Mayberry and the resurgent Domonic Brown hold down the outfield. Wells is probably a fourth outfielder at best, but is better than the guy he's replacing in Delmon Young. Mayberry might be an okay guy to have in the outfield, but he's not a long term solution on a team of aging players. Not that he's awful, but an every day outfielder he is not. There wasn't much choice after Revere landed on the DL. Brown was royally messed up after going up and down more times than a yo-yo. His swing and confidence were pretty well shot, but he got another shot at full time duty this year and has produced at a level beyond what anybody expected after the struggles he's had.
Ryan Howard is on the disabled list and gets picked on enough already. Suffice it to say, he's not an everyday first baseman with his massive platoon splits, but still plays against lefties. Although, looking at the roster, I don't see that there's much choice.
Darin Ruf is......last year, he was 26 years old and in Double-A. Take from that what you will.
As for pitching, Hamels is having an off year. That you couldn't have predicted. Even if you had a crystal ball and could see into the future, seeing Roy Halladay struggle like he did and landing on the DL would have been so unbelievable it would have been dismissed and your little crystal ball would have been smashed to bits. Halladay comes back to the aging veterans part, but a collapse this sudden and this massive isn't on anybody. We can file this one under "Shit happens" and move on. The starting rotation is still good, but they're not 28 any more. Injuries will happen and, as with Halladay, so will falling off a cliff.
I defy you to name me one pitcher in the bullpen besides Papelbon without looking it up.
In a lot of cases, the manager gets fired for a team underperforming. Its not exactly fair, but its the nature of baseball and there's nothing egregious about the way its done and the circumstances surrounding it. The Manuel firing was not only stupid, but ill-timed and made absolutely no sense. There were some who thought the Phillies might be able to compete, but there were many more who saw what we're seeing now. An aging team that wouldn't be able to absorb a major injury and might not have the talent beyond the few mid-30 stars they did have to compete in the NL West. Manuel may have been fired Friday, but this one is all on Ruben Amaro Jr.
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